Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 28.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
Apparently all that’s needed for books to forget how prolific the Dallas offense can be is for them to lose a couple of outdoor road games. Those situations have never been their strong suit for years now, but they’re finally back home, on turf, where their offensive speed makes all the difference.
And the Cowboys are up against one of the league’s worst defenses, but also an offense that is probably going to push them. So it’s making very little sense to me why a team averaging 30.2 PPG on the year and 39.9 at home has a team total this low. Dallas is scoring on 63% of possessions in Jerry World, including converting 61% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. That’s prolific levels of success, especially in this current NFL.
The Detroit defense will offer little resistance, as the past nine weeks have seen the Lions rank 26th in EPA/play and 32nd in EPA/dropback. The Cowboys will be angry and motivated on national TV, so I don’t see them letting up on their way to easily clearing this number.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Detroit Lions/Dallas Cowboys 1st Half Over 25.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
These teams are first and third in the NFL for scoring before halftime, with the Cowboys averaging 24.4 themselves in home games. I expect the Cowboys to be extremely aggressive throughout the game, but especially early on as they look to atone for consecutive losses, so that will mean lots of early points. Games in Dallas are 7-0 over this total while averaging 32.9 points, so expect another here tonight.
NFL Saturday Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jared Goff Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+120)
0.25 Unit – Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+155)
0.25 Unit – Brandin Cooks Anytime TD (+170)
0.25 Unit – CeeDee Lamb 125+ Receiving Yards (+200)
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 226.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
As always with the Lakers, monitor the status of LeBron James and Anthony Davis as their perpetual questionable tags are applied once again tonight. But with them in this game we should see some points, much like we did last week when these teams combined for 229 points with James sitting out. That game furthered the road trend for LA, who has the second-best over record in road games this season.
The Lakers have been cashing overs like crazy lately, going over tonight’s total in 9 of their past 10 games. That will be a test for the excellent Wolves defense, but I think it fuels a higher-scoring game in general. The bottom line is this is a fairly low total by current NBA standards, so with enough star power on the floor this game should find its way over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1875-1676 ATS (+87.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.